Better Than Expected!

Existing Home Sales - Stable Pricing, Better than Expected Sales

The third quarter gave us an opportunity to see the effects of both slow bank-owned (REO) additions to the market as well as the effect of the homebuyer tax credit (there were three versions). As a result of these factors, demand was pulled forward,
essentially borrowing sales from the future.

In terms of the housing tax credit’s effect on pricing, we observed a temporary bump in the prices of homes on the lower end of the spectrum. Nationally, research has shown that the third version generated an approximate 6.4% growth above trend (FNC,
2010). Our research has demonstrated that locally, prices on large homes (typically greater than 2,000 sq. ft.) did not experience an increase in prices, but more of a slowing of price declines.

The second half of 2009 and early 2010 was a vibrant period, with multiple offers on well-priced homes becoming commonplace. The post-tax credit season has included moderating sales, but has been outperforming our own expectations in the third
quarter.

Potential homebuyers had been craving more inventory, and the third quarter experienced additional inventory due to a combination of moderating sales
and more new placements on the market. This turned into a benefit for home buyers by helping to decrease their search time. With the increase in inventory we have observed a rise in the number days on market. This has yet to manifest itself in a resulting decline in prices for the bulk of homes sold; some housing types continue to see declines, but this is not symmetric for the whole market.

There is some pressure on home prices, but it is moderated by investors recognizing the long-term potentials of the market, as well as the cash flow opportunities yielded by rental properties. The bottom line for a great deal of buyers is that buying is less expensive than renting. This fact is further substantiated by the observed returns from homes sold with tenants in place, where investors have been able to achieve un-leveraged returns in the high single digits and often double digits.

Recognizing these returns, investors have made up a great proportion of our sales, possibly up to fifty percent. This is not the ideal speculator we saw in the past, but rather a majority of investors we encounter have a long-term hold strategy. This has been very beneficial for the marketplace.